Our Stance on D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS)
D-Wave Quantum has built a $15 billion market cap on three claims: that it has genuine commercial traction with over 100 enterprise customers, that it is a meaningful player in the Quantum AI space, and that it is simultaneously developing two distinct quantum computing platforms.
Based on first-hand operational experience inside the organization, extensive technical analysis, and primary sourcing from multiple insiders, we believe all three claims are materially disconnected from reality. This is not a story about a technology that failed to deliver. It is a story about a management team that chose narrative over reality — and a market that has not yet caught up to the difference.
What We Found
- The Customer Count and Commercial Story Is a Mirage
- D-Wave’s Quantum AI Narrative Is Manufactured Hype
- The Dual-Platform Strategy Was Never Real… and Likely Never Will
- Their Business Model Cannot Scale
- The Leadership and Sales Organization Has Failed
D-Wave’s own Head of Sales, after his introductory visit with the company’s flagship customer, summarized the commercial reality in a single sentence: “We can’t get anyone to move onto larger deals, they just want to talk.”
Watch: The Bull and Bear Case for QBTS
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We present both sides. The bull case for D-Wave is not nothing — the annealing technology is real, the hardware is operational, and the company has more commercial traction than most of its pure-play quantum peers. We explain exactly what would need to be true for the current valuation to make sense, and why we believe those conditions are not met.
Publication Schedule
Our complete research on D-Wave Quantum will be released across three days beginning March 30. Each product is designed for a different audience and depth of engagement.
March 30 – Complete Due Diligence Report
The most comprehensive independent analysis of D-Wave Quantum available anywhere. Full technical assessment, commercial analysis, leadership evaluation, and primary-sourced evidence across every major claim. Designed for institutional investors conducting serious diligence on QBTS.
April 2 – Short Thesis Report
The core investor document. The five central arguments, the evidence behind each, and the implications for anyone holding or evaluating a position. Written for sophisticated independent investors who want the full picture without the institutional depth.
April 3 – Research Brief
A distilled summary of the key findings, structured for readers who want the essential conclusions and the most important evidence points in a format built for rapid consumption. Published to all members and distributed via email.
April 3 – Live Research Briefing
A live YouTube discussion covering the full scope of our D-Wave research. We will walk through the core findings, present the bull and bear case, and take questions. Open to all members.